Tories win by landslide

David Cameron's Conservative Party swept to a better-than-expected victory in the Norwich North by-election today.

The Tories enjoyed a 16.49% swing to secure 13,591 votes - just under 40% - wiping out Labour's lead of 5,459 in the last general election.

Labour was pushed into second place with 6,243 votes while the LibDems came third with 4,809.

If the results were repeated in next year's General Election, the Tories would win with a majority of at least 100 seats in the Commons. Norwich North is 162nd on the list of Tory targets.

Victorious Chloe Smith, who at 27 becomes Britain's youngest MP, said the poll was a "victory for honest politics" which sent a "loud and clear" message to Gordon Brown.

"I will be a tireless champion for local people," she said. "You have invested great responsibility in me. It will be an honour to serve you and I will not let you down."

Labour sources blamed the defeat on the expenses scandal backlash and local factors.

The byelection was forced by the resignation of sitting MP Dr Ian Gibson after Labour's "star chamber" found him guilty of misclaiming on his expenses - a charge he continues to deny.

Dr Gibson remains popular among locals and many stayed at home in protest - turnout was 45.88%, down almost a third on the 2005 general election figure of 61.09%.

Mr Cameron subjected the constituency to a sustained Tory love-bombing in the run-up to the poll. He visited the area SIX times and ordered high-profile members of his team to make at least three trips to East Anglia.

Gordon Brown did not visit the constituency once, even when the 28-year-old Labour candidate Chris Ostrowski was struck down with swine flu.

On a seventh visit this afternoon, the Tory leader praised Chloe for fighting a positive campaign.

He said: "I have seen a Labour campaign that I would describe as utterly despicable. What they said about us was untruth after untruth.

"This is the Prime Minister who talks about courage and a moral compass. Where was the courage in not even coming here? And how can the moral compass allow a campaign of lies and half truths?"

"This is only the second Conservative victory in a Labour-held seat in last 27 years. People want change in our country, they want openness and transparency. We've made a good start."

The PM, who stayed in London to visit an NHS swine-flu centre, said: "This is a disappointing result but the voters were torn between anger and dismay about MPs' expenses and at the same time support for former MP Ian Gibson who was very popular.

"No party can take great cheer from this byelection - the total number of Conservative and Liberal votes were down - and it's a lesson we've all got to observe. We've got to clean up Westminster poiltics and keep our eye on what is important - the economic recovery and swine flu."

Anne Fryatt of the protest group the NOTA (None Of The Above) Party secured only 59 votes in the North Norwich byelection. Which is maybe not surprising given that her name appeared third in the list - before all the major candidates. There is talk of future NOTA hopefuls going to deed poll to pick names beginning with Z.

FULL RESULTS

Chloe Smith (Conservative) 13,591

Chris Ostrowski (Labour) 6,243

April Pond (Liberal Democrat) 4,803

Rupert Read (Green) 3,350

Robert West (BNP) 941

Craig Murray (Put an Honest Man into Parliament) 953

Peter Baggs (Independent) 23

Bill Holden (Independent) 166

Thomas Burridge (Libertarian) 36

Howling Laud (Monster Raving Loony) 144

Anne Fryatt (NOTA) 59

Glenn Tingle (UK Independence Party) 4,068

ANALYSIS: Ian Kirby, the News of the World's Politics Editor

"Labour's battered spin doctors have spent the past week claiming that Norwich North was a "unique" byelection - with no public appetite to replace a popular sitting MP.

"If it was true, then Labour voters would rather have an MP who used his expenses to pay for a flat he shared with his daughter and then flogged it to her for a knock down price than a New Labour replacement.

"But the scale of the victory - a 7,348 majority - will chill the blood of the Cabinet Ministers who reluctantly backed the Prime Minister last month.

"This is the sort of swing - at least 16% - that Tony Blair was picking up in the months before he came to power with a landslide majority in 1997.

"A win of this scale across the rest of the country would see David Cameron in power with a 100 plus majority.

"Many Labour voters may have stayed at home, but thousands more voted Tory for the first time.

"The news that the Labour candidate had suspected swine flu summed up their dismal campaign - which concentrated on the tired old message that the Tories will be nasty to pensioners and children.

"This was a thumping win for the Tories in line with the poll in last weekend's News of the World. It shows there is now a genuine desire for a Tory government.

"And it proves Gordon Brown will lead Labour to a landside defeat unless he gets out there are tells peoiple what he stands for, what it means to vote Labour and how he's going to improve their lives.

"Fat chance."

HOW WE PREDICTED LABOUR DEFEAT



FIRST PUBLISHED: Sunday, July 19

GORDON Brown is about to be given a bloody nose by voters today - losing a previously safe seat to the Tories in a vital by-election.

The latest ICM poll shows the Tories are set to overturn Labour's solid 5,459 majority in Norwich North by grabbing 34 per cent of the vote.

Labour are likely to trail in second after getting 30 per cent, with the Lib Dems third on 15 per cent - just one per cent ahead of the Green Party, the poll of local voters has revealed.

If repeated at the general election, the figures would mean that the neighbouring MP, ex-Home Secretary Charles Clarke, would also lose his Norwich South seat.

The by-election was caused by the resignation of the previous MP, Dr Ian Gibson, after Labour's so-called "star chamber" found him guilty by of misclaiming on his expenses - a charge he continues to deny.

And it has turned into a major headache for the Prime Minister, who was desperate to avoid another referendum on his leadership so soon after the attempted coup by Ministers after the local and European elections.

With a general election less than a year away, a lot rests on the outcome of the vote for this seat, regarded as one of the safer Labour ones in East Anglia.

The Tories have thrown everything into the by-election campaign - seeking to retake a constituency they have not held since 1997 - with up to 40 Conservative MPs canvassing in the city each day.

Conservative leader David Cameron has also made several visits . . . while Gordon Brown has stayed away.

But local voters have shown little interest in the campaign and a low turnout is expected for today's election. One debate among the candidates was cancelled on Tuesday night because only three people turned up.

A lot depends on whether Labour's core voters bother to turn out or whether they stay at home or even switch sides.

ICM's poll says just over half of voters who backed Labour in the 2005 election will vote for them again, compared to 91 per cent of Tories and 64 per cent of Lib Dem voters who will stay loyal.

And with the scale of voter disillusionment with the Westminster parties, and lingering anger at the treatment meted out to Dr Gibson, there's an expectation that the Greens and UKIP will pick up ex-Labour voters.

Pressure

Labour have made a series of claims that the Tories will slash public services, cutting job creation schemes and even ending free TV licences for pensioners.

These are expected to employ them in next year's general election - but a heavy defeat will put further pressure on Gordon Brown to drop the strategy.

In any event, Mr Brown's former Cabinet colleagues believe he has now run out of any ideas that could win them the next election.

Ex-Pensions Secretary James Purnell, who resigned in June, yesterday said he lost faith in Gordon Brown as leader six months ago.

Mr Purnell said he had been considering resigning since December because he no longer believed Mr Brown could win the next election.

He also urged Labour to recapture the idealism of its first days in power.

And ex-Defence Secretary John Hutton said Mr Brown had "many, many talents" but warned it was a "tragedy" voters did not see them.

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