Truth about the housing market

HOUSE price statistics . . . it was never going to be the most uplifting of subjects right now.

But it wasn't until I saw some conflicting figures this week that I realised two things.

1: How totally varied the impact of the recession is in different areas across the country.

2: Just how confusing the recently-available figures are for the average person.

So this week, I've made it my mission to try to de-mystify it a bit for you.

If you read the RightMove house price report which came out a few days ago, you'd be forgiven for thinking that things are, just slightly, getting better.

It shows that, on average across the UK, house prices have gone up by 2.4 per cent.

However, RightMove's figures are based on asking prices-what the property is on the market for-rather than actual sold prices.

The stats also show that a lot of people are staying away from putting their home up for sale.

Figures have dropped from 135,000 sellers this time last year, to just 61,000 this May. That's the lowest since 2003.

While we're all affected by the credit squeeze, there are three main groups who are particularly struggling in the current housing market, all of whom are having to stay away from selling.

THE EQUITY RELEASERS: These are the folk who, for the last seven or eight years, have habitually re-mortgaged in order to fund their lifestyles. Because they have spent all their cash, they now need to remortgage again as there's very little equity in their properties. For some, they are even in negative equity.

Hence, while they may WANT to move, they are STUCK.

RECENT BUYERS: People who bought around middle to late 2007 - when the market was at its peak.

Because it was still easy then to get a 95 per cent mortgage, this group- mostly first-time buyers-also have very little equity in their property.

They simply borrowed so much to buy so when prices dip they are quickly affected. Again, much as they may want to move, they can't.

Improve

EQUITY LOSERS: These guys are in the best position. Most will have decent equity in their property (around 25 per cent) and are borderline for the best mortgage deals.

But it doesn't add up for them to move right now so they are choosing to sit tight and wait until things improve.

So less property available means house prices will stabilise, which is why we're being told prices have gone up?

Sorry but no, that's not the case. Only the people who are absolutely desperate to move are selling right now - hence the slight rise in asking prices.

Zoopla.co.uk collect EVERY sold price in the UK, so have a good idea of how much people are ACTUALLY paying for homes right now. On average, Zoopla reckon house prices across the UK have fallen 20 per cent since the summer of '07.

But their research does suggests the drop may slow in the coming months.

So while it's not quite as bad as it all sounds-it's not quite as rosy either.

Got a question for Louisa? Email it to louisa.fletcher@notw.co.uk

Your comments

This article has 5 comments

Looking at articles like this I can see us in 5 years time being in exactly the same position as we were a few years ago-a house ceases to be a home and becomes essentially a lottery ticket-an unusual lottery in that there are no losers-whatever you borrow on top of your mortgage you're OK because the rising housing market will bail you out-Bill at Number 5 made £100000 on his house and sold it on the day he put it up for sale-yes-he told me!!and there are TV shows on all the time telling you how to make a fortune from your house-no-one loses in this lottery.
This is all garbage-get the message through-you will need a deposit and a decent job to buy a house-if you do not have a deposit then save for it.-please get it into peoples heads that the time of having everything now has come to an end otherwise there will be more misery as people overstretch themselves and lose their homes.

By Anthony Shelton.. Posted July 19 2009 at 4:14 PM.

Hmm, House prices must drop... WHY? Well, if first time buyers can not afford to buy, then there will be no market to sell to. Hence, as property becomes available, be it repossessions or past away, property will be there. Average salary - £24908 House prices should be 3-4 time average salary - Hence Tops £99632. (25 year mortgage.) They should not top these. No one should be offered a term of more than 25years. No one should get more than 4 times their salary. Make housing affordable not a luxury. I see a home as an essential part of a happy society. We need communities, not lords of the manor!

By chris.. Posted July 9 2009 at 10:43 PM.

whats the point of borrowing on the equity of your home?,you still have to pay it back,am i missing something here?

By alan simpson.. Posted June 21 2009 at 10:00 AM.

Louisa, your source is not as accurate as you seem to believe.
Test your own property. I did, and the current value estimate would just about purchase the most run down house on my road, as reported sold by Zoopla this year.

By Debbie.. Posted May 24 2009 at 11:20 PM.

I don't understand the idea that house prices dropping to more affordable levels is a bad thing.

By Mike.. Posted May 24 2009 at 4:40 PM.

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