Oscars: No flicker of hope

Carey gets in practice for Oscars night.

By Robbie Collin, News of the World film critic, 03/02/2010

RULE Britannia, hoist the Union Jack, God save the Queen and all that racket. Britain's got a few Oscar nominations this year.

And I don't want to be the one to poop on any parties, or drain my bladder on the celebratory procession here. But we're not going to win any.

Clarification. We're not GOING to win any, but we damn well DESERVE to.

Colin Firth's up for Best Actor, for his performance in A Single Man, which is out over here on Friday 12 February. Now I don't even like Colin Firth's normal efforts. But his performance in that film is something else.

Col plays a gay college professor mourning the death of his lover. And I know it sounds like pretentious art-house drek, but he brings the house down.

From a man who's been stuck rehashing Mr Darcy for the last 15 years, it's a career-best performance.

Yet the Academy votes in mysterious ways. And because it's made up of film industry pros and ex-pros, rather than reviewers and cinema fans like you and I, awards can sometimes go to people whose 'time has come'.

Hence Jeff Bridges - a five-time nominee, zero-time winner, whose admittedly brilliant turn in Crazy Heart has won him best actor gongs at almost every other awards bash this year - will take the trophy.

The same goes for the women. If you've seen An Education, you'll know what I'm talking about.

Carey Mulligan, a modest 24-year-old lass who's had bit-parts in Doctor Who and has dutifully trod the costume drama circuit, won her first lead role in this coming of age drama. And basically forged a Hollywood career with it.

She was ace - delivering a star-making performance - and in a just world, the Best Actress Oscar would be hers.

But lo, flavour of the month in the States is Sandra Bullock.

And the general feeling is, she'll take it for The Blind Side, a film that's not coming out over here until 12 March, in which she plays a caring, middle-class white woman who rescues a poor, stupid, black teenager and turns him into an American footballer. Whoop-te-doo.

I've not seen it yet. But I'd bet my entire past and future earnings on San not being a patch on our Carey.

Still. Carey's got years ahead of her yet, and I doubt she'll be a stranger to the Oscar podium in ceremonies to come. And if Sandra DOES win, she should then be forced to hand the dam thing back over All About Steve and The Proposal.

Helen Mirren's done well to get a Best Actress nod too - but I reckon the UK's best chance of Oscar gold this year is in the Adapted Screenplay category.

Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche got a nom for In The Loop - the superb comedy about the political wrangling around the Iraq war that was out last summer.

They're up against a very strong field, including Britain's own Nick Hornby for An Education. But the Oscars always throws up a couple of surprise results - and there's no question that Loop's venomous satire stands out against the manicured scripts it's up against.

Meanwhile, in the Best Supporting Actor and Actress slots, we've got two foregone conclusions.

Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds and Mo'Nique for Precious are both locks. They've won every other prize going this year, and that won't change on Oscar night.

Re the Best Picture result? It's got to be Avatar. The Oscars moved from five best pic nominations to ten this year, in order to get more mainstream movies in the final.

And the ceremony always gets the biggest ratings - and generates the most column inches - when a massive blockbuster takes the grand prize.

Titanic and Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King were bumper Oscar years. So if they don't honour Avatar, the Academy risks making itself look irrelevant.

Expect them to throw Kathryn Bigelow a bone in the shape of the Best Director prize - The Hurt Locker is a fantastic piece of work - but Avatar's too important, and too significant to the future of cinema, to miss out on the top spot.

Other predictions: Up for best animated, A Prophet for best foreign. And I'd like to think Inglourious Basterds can take Best Original Screenplay.

Plus it's nice to see The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus getting some love in the shape of a best costumes nomination - which I predicted all the way back in October. (Skills to pay the bills, people.)

Now let's hope I'm right on the above. Cos otherwise, I think I'm legally bound to sign over all my future earnings to Sandra Bullock.

BEST PICTURE

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

A Serious Man

Up In The Air

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

George Clooney - Up In The Air

Colin Firth - A Single Man

Morgan Freeman - Invictus

Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Matt Damon - Invictus

Woody Harrelson - The Messenger

Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side

Helen Mirren - The Last Station

Carey Mulligan - An Education

Gabourey Sidibe - Precious

Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Penelope Cruz - Nine

Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air

Mo'Nique - Precious

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Coraline

Fantastic Mr Fox

The Princess And The Frog

The Secret Of Kells

DIRECTING

Avatar - James Cameron

The Hurt Locker - Kathryn Bigelow

Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino

Precious - Lee Daniels

Up In The Air - Jason Reitman

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ajami - Israel

El Secreto de Sus Ojos - Argentina

The Milk Of Sorrow - Peru

A Prophet - France

The White Ribbon - Germany

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

District 9 - written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

An Education - screenplay by Nick Hornby

In The Loop - screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche

Precious - screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher

Up In The Air - screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

The Hurt Locker - written by Mark Boal

Inglourious Basterds - written by Quentin Tarantino

The Messenger - written by Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman

A Serious Man - written by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Up - screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

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