One man's crisis is another's plan

By Fraser Nelson, 22/02/2009

EVERY time I see George Osborne, his face looks whiter. And not just because he's been staying away from Corfu yachts.

Our Shadow Chancellor is steadily realising that he's set for what could be the worst job in postwar political history.

His crystal ball shows a Hammer Horror story of cuts, layoffs and strikes. And, perhaps, an early election defeat.

The prize for the Tories' 20-point poll lead is a first-class ticket to hell. Because that's what government will be. John Major left Tony Blair a bottle of champagne after election day. Gordo will leave Cam a bill for at least £2 trillion.

If you'd spent a million quid every day since the birth of Christ, the bill would still be smaller than after Brown's 12-year binge.

Once, David Cameron and Boy George spoke about "sharing the proceeds of growth". Instead, they'll have to repay debt.

So . . . will it be 25% VAT? Savage income tax hikes? Chancellor Osborne's set of choices will be hideous. And deeply unpopular.

Just ask Arnold Schwarze- negger, the Governor of California. His state is going bankrupt, yet he's quaking at the idea of cuts.

Even the Terminator can't bring himself to terminate the wasteful spending. He's made timid cuts that won't save his budget.

Already, the Tories are picturing all this - and quaking too. The first to feel the pinch may be Boris Johnson, London Mayor.

He's up for re-election in 2012. "But by then," a senior Tory told me, "Cameron's cuts will be in full flow. It'll be war with unions.

"Imagine it - teachers on strike. Nurses protesting in the streets. Litter uncollected. No Tory could be elected then."

This augurs ill for Cameron's re-election. Especially if tax rises mean the economy double-dips BACK into recession.

Cuts are vital - and inevitable. It's also immoral to keep loading future generations with debt because ministers won't cut now.

This means young Osborne will find himself as a first-time surgeon, amputating limbs to save the life of the patient.

Even worse, he'll have to ask for the patient's vote half way through when election time comes around again. This is why Labour MPs are talking about a quick comeback. There's a real chance, they think, that Cam will be blown off course.

They have a point. If you put together all the best politicians of the last century, they'd struggle with the task now at hand.

So what chance will Cam have with his team - most of whom have precisely ZERO experience of government?

I have faith in Cam. He's adaptable. Freakishly cool under pressure. My hunch is that the public will understand the need for cuts.

But only if he's honest. If Cam is elected on a 'no cuts' promise and then wields his hatchet, he'll be booted out. And rightly so.

Thatcher was elected to save the economy. Her medicine was almost spat out by voters. If it wasn't for the Falklands, she's have lost in 1983.

She was also saved by a Labour/SDP split.

And that's Labour's lesson: to keep calm, blame Brown, stay united, oppose cuts.

Their aircraft is going down, that's for sure. But as one Cabinet member told me: "We need to land this plane in the Hudson."

An elegant crash-land is the best Labour can hope for. And then sit, wait and hope - as Tories fly into the hurricane.

GORDON BROWN has said he doesn't like celebrity culture, and proved it by sending his sympathies to "Jane Goody". At least he gets the economic forecasts right, though. Doesn't he?

THE VATICAN says the Pope is NOT considering Gordo's suggestion that he visits Britain - and quite right too.

Only the Queen can make such invitations. Good to see the Papacy respecting the British constitution, even if our halo-seeking PM does not.

Put up or shut up...

DAVID Cameron says he "resents every penny" of the £2,500 compensation paid to Abu Qatada under 'human rights' laws.

But his proposed Bill of Rights is a decoy. He'd keep us in hock to the same Strasbourg court. I'd advise Cam to keep quiet about Human Rights lunacies. Until he gathers the resolve to actually do something about it.

UK sales of 4x4s have collapsed, thanks in no small part to taxes on gas- guzzlers. How long before government bails out 4x4 makers?

Legacy to shame UK

JADE Goody has done more for awareness of cervical cancer than ten years of campaigns.

Sure, she's also cashing in. But not for herself. As she says: "I'm ignorant, but the money means my sons won't be."

She means she'll have a trust to send them private. And here is another, uniquely British aspect to this tragedy.

Education spending has doubled. Yet we still live in a country where a mother's dying wish is for her kids to escape the state system.

No one questions her logic. And that should give all our ministers food for thought.

Your comments

This article has 5 comments

Leopards never change their spots indeed. Which is why Labour have brought the country to bankruptcy. AGAIN.

When will the populace learn that flirting with Labour just ruins us in the end?

By Dan.. Posted March 24 2009 at 8:24 PM.

what this country needs is to leave the politics out and have a coalition in which everyone works for each other.

By mark hems.. Posted February 22 2009 at 5:47 PM.

What is really worrying about this self imposed financial crisis is that no one has shown the courage to say that we need to re-invent money. By that I mean we have to find a way to use money so that greed, both by the individual person and the corporate monster, can be eradicated. There is little point in a system where billions of whatever currency you wish to choose are kept from use by people who hoard it and don't put it back into the system by making it work for the benefit of all. It should have been obvious to all the so called experts that when financial institutions and Governments were looking to promote debt in order to make profits and artificially keep growth in the political arena that we were heading for disaster. Even now people are trying to ignore the true depth of our troubles by forgetting that we no longer have the ability to produce goods or have the gold reserve's necessary to back up our currency. We have to get rid of the current banking system and create a global unit of currency that means one unit is worth the same in the USA as it is in Germany as it is in Africa. We also need to re-evaluate what Governments are supposed to be doing for the people they are supposed to represent. Its the only way we could make so that it would be the supposed will of the people and not the corporate leaders that controlled the so called Global economy.

By Dave Preston.. Posted February 22 2009 at 1:10 PM.

If Labour called the election this year the Tories would only get one term because they would take over just before things got really bad. However, Brown won't call the election until 2010, by which time we'll probably be in the thick of a recession/depression. This downturn will always be associated with Labour and, by the time the Tories come up for re-election in 2014/15, we will almost certainly have started to recover.
Labour will go nowhere in their first term in opposition, there will be too much infighting. Infact, if Harman ended up as leader, they'll go backwards. Also, when talking about Thatcher, it wasn't the Falklands that saved her. Oppinion polls were already beginning to go in her favour before the Falklands. There was no way the country was going to elect the Labour party in the 80's, they were a mess.
Labour will be incapable of keeping calm and staying united in their first term of opposition. The Conservatives are almost guaranteed to get at least two terms.

By Harry.. Posted February 22 2009 at 12:53 PM.

Please God don't make the mistake of imposing on us a Tory Government. Saw Osborne in Whiteley's Shopping Centre once. Just as bad in the flesh than in photographs. Wouldn't trust him or Cameron if my life depended on it. Over-privileged Tory toff millionaires. Leopards never change their spots. The Cam couple are worth about £50,000,000 between them - yes she of the Stepford wives variety who seems to be dead from the neck up - and they leave me cold.

As for London Mayor, bring back Ken or vote in Richard Branson.

By very worried Londoner.. Posted February 22 2009 at 12:18 PM.

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