Brown & Out

News of the World poll of marginals shows how David Cameron would storm to election victory

9% swing gives Cam 131 seats
64 majority largest gap since 1997
Tories are winning the war of ideas

By Ian Kirby

DAVID Cameron is storming towards a massive Tory win at the next general election, sweeping aside over 130 Labour MPs.

An exclusive News of the World ICM poll today reveals the Tory leader would get a NINE PER CENT swing—the same as Tony Blair won with in 1997.

The findings will put the Prime Minister under massive pressure—and mean that FOUR Cabinet ministers would lose their seats.

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The last time we ran our rule over the 145 marginal seats six months ago the results SCARED him so much he called off an early general election at the last minute.

Then, in October, our ICM poll found Labour would lose 49 of the key seats.

Damage

Now the number of predicted Labour losses has MORE THAN DOUBLED to a staggering ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY ONE SEATS.

It would give the Tories a healthy 64-seat majority and would see FOUR Labour Cabinet ministers booted out of the Commons.

We found that working class voters in these crucial close-run seats are deserting New Labour in droves for the first time because of Brown's decision to scrap the 10p tax band which has caused him major political damage.

And voters think Cameron is ahead in almost every area of the political battle—from setting taxes to the controversial war on terror.

What makes it even worse is that the Tories have not yet even unveiled detailed policies in most of these areas.

Voters simply believe the Tories' ideas can't be any worse than those of the current government.

Our findings could not come at a worse time for Brown—just days before the local and London elections when Labour are expected to suffer heavy losses.

The poll shows Cameron well ahead as a LEADER. A total of 47 per cent of voters in the marginals think he would make the best Prime Minister, compared to only 34 per cent who back Brown. And that support for the PM falls to 29 PER CENT among working-class voters and pensioners who are likely to turn out in large numbers at the next election. On the crucial issues, Cameron rules:

HOSPITALS: He gets 11 per cent more votes than Brown over the modernisation of the NHS.

EDUCATION: Cameron's top of the class here too after years of Labour attempts to sort it out. Thirteen points ahead.

TRANSPORT: He's six per cent up on Brown when it comes to rail and roads.

IMMIGRATION: No doubting that people believe the Tories will get a grip on this with tough controls. Cameron 26 per cent ahead.

ECONOMY: In a blow to the former Chancellor, they think Cameron would be better at setting taxes (3 per cent) than Brown—and better at dealing with the rising cost of living (6 per cent).

But one small ray of light for him...

The marginal masses still believe Brown is the best leader to unlock the credit crunch—which suggests Shadow Chancellor George Osborne has failed to impress them with his attacks over the rising cost of mortgages.

Another worrying factor for the Prime Minister is that, for the first time under New Labour, Tory support is growing outside of their South-Eastern heartlands.

Our poll shows that, if there were a general election tomorrow, there would be a lot more BLUE on the map in the North and Midlands. And a detailed look at the findings shows that Cameron's new supporters now include a third of those who voted Labour in 2005.

It's all very bad news for four Cabinet ministers who could find themselves out of office and out of a job—including the Chancellor.

The poll shows ALISTAIR DARLING (majority 7,242), Home Secretary JACQUI SMITH (2,716), Business Secretary JOHN HUTTON (6,037) and Transport Secretary RUTH KELLY (2,064) would all lose their seats.

DOWNLOAD FULL POLL RESULTS

Labour is also facing a desperate battle to hold the formerly safe seat of Crewe and Nantwich in next month's by-election caused by the death of MP Gwyneth Dunwoody.

Her 7,078 majority could well disappear, giving the Tories a huge morale boost.

Brown's imminent focus will be on the looming council elections disaster this Thursday. Cabinet Ministers will say they do not reflect the national picture.

But ominously only 19 PER CENT of voters in our marginals poll said they would vote according to local issues.

Crumbs

Instead half pinpointed the state of the NHS as the top issue and the other half went for law and order.

After that, schools (40 per cent), tax (36 per cent) and the economy (33 per cent) are priorities.

The only bad news for the Tories is that voters don't share David Cameron's commitment to green policies. Only 23 per cent say the environment is their top priority.

But our poll does give Brown two small crumbs of comfort. Labour's support is still strongest among young voters. And there is still a large amount of residual goodwill for the Prime Minister.

Voters were given three statements describing Brown. A total of 39 per cent agreed he was weak, indecisive and is doing a bad job.

Another 39 per cent said he was solid, reliable and doing a good job.

But three-quarters of voters (76 per cent) also believed he was trying to do a good job in difficult circumstances.

He can only hope that he succeeds—and wins back enough hearts and minds to turn the growing Tory tide.

ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,007 adults aged 18+ by telephone between April 23 and 24, 2008. Interviews were conducted across the 145 most marginal seats where Labour came first in 2005 and the Conservatives came second. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Further information at www.icmresearch.co.uk